Ride Big Trends in Bull and Bear Markets
Learn a trend following system that actually works. Trend follower Matthias Hagemann teaches how to become confident and profitable, how to buy oversold stocks, and how to ride massive multi-year trends.
Hi. I’m Matthias Hagemann, founder of Trend Architect and former securities analyst in the FinTech industry. After more than a decade of experience, I teach you how to make big money in the stock market. For free!
Just like you, I grew sick and tired of trading books and spending money on useless trading courses that promise to teach you how to trade for profit.
None got me any results. All of them claimed to reveal exact tactics but either remained completely vague, or scalped arbitrary chart patterns for little profit. I was furious! If you’re in a similar position like I was back then, you have found the right place.
The way people in this industry charge you high fees or ask you to pay a fortune for trading courses that don’t provide any evidence for success is a shameful sin. They lure you with a (rented) Lamborghini and brag about daily profits (while hiding their losses). These kids offer nothing but hot air! I offer results. I treat you like a real person who just wants to become successful. It took me years to get there, but with my trend following system, you’ll be trading like the big boys in a matter of months.
I dabbled into stock trading at age 15 by buying $500 worth of Apple shares in 1999. The position tripled in a few months only to implode with the 2000 stock market crash, forcing me to close it at breakeven. In 2004, I bought the shares once again and, this time, sold the position when it tripled only to see the price climb higher and higher.
These life lessons allow only one takeaway: You must own the right shares at the right time. I went onto a journey of self-discovery and wrote a senior thesis on “The Psychology of Financial Markets” which asserts that market participants cannot act perfectly rational due to their inherent behavioral biases. Trend following became a focus topic which I studied vigorously. The trend following system I teach here is the result of that journey and I can’t wait to share the knowledge with you.
I now manage Hagemann Capital, a high-conviction investment fund.
How I Started With the S&P 500 E-mini Futures
You’re not sure whether I’m legit? If you have been scarred like me, you’ll want to see proof before we talk further. Let me show you proof of my humble beginnings:
In 2011, I ran a public experiment in trading the E-mini S&P 500 index futures (ES). You can read through my archived trading journal “ES Trend Following” on Elite Trader in which I accumulated $16,000 with one futures contract (my username on Elite Trader is ‘Bombardier’ because I fancy their private jets).
All my thought processes are elucidated therein and I answered a lot of questions coming from other traders. It’s impossible to fake those results because I posted live trades as they happened.
I entirely self-taught my trend following system and sharpened it significantly over the years. It is a now a full-fledged system with individual components working together in harmony. It follows even larger trends lasting months to years.
I know you can’t sit in front of the screen all day long! Most of you have day jobs to attend to. You are learning a trend following system that actually works, and allows you to compound wealth passively without losing its edge the next quarter!
The trend following system uses so-called ‘triggering levels’ as entry signals which are price levels where prices bounce off from. I frequently noticed that stocks magically bottomed-out or topped-out at a triggering level.
A real-time opportunity was presenting itself where I could test my theory.
Turning Oversold Chinese Stocks Into $110,340
In 2013, I was firmly convinced that the time was ripe to invest in the Chinese stock market. I had been eyeing the Shanghai Composite for quite some time. The 2007 bubble had burst and left share prices in shambles.
Different from the U.S. stock market, the Chinese market was never able to recover in the 6 years since. You may be scratching your head now: Wait a minute. Isn’t China on its way to becoming the world’s superpower? Why wasn’t their market catching up?
Looking deeper, I found out that the average P/E (price-to-earnings) ratio stood at a mere 10. You only needed 10 years to recoup your investment with the profits generated by the constituent businesses. For comparison, the S&P 500’s P/E hovered around 18. So China was either severely oversold or a value trap, meaning that earnings were expected to decline further.
You can see that the index made a series of lower lows, but you also see that the rate of descent was flattening. It meant that market participants were starting to agree on a price level. I call them regression curves, borrowed from the curve fitting method in regression analysis. It gives little further downside ahead (unless more unexpected news emerges).
I figured that after 6 years into its bear market, the likelihood of materially negative news was low. Trending news at that time were about the worries in the Chinese housing market, that it was a bubble, but all of it was already known and likely priced in.
If you do what everyone else is doing, you shouldn’t be surprised to get the same results everyone else is getting.
What assured me most, however, was that prices were repeatedly touching my triggering level. I wasn’t interested in buying individual Chinese shares, but rather interested in buying the broad market as a whole.
My idea was that China’s economy as a whole will strengthen and that its largest companies will benefit meaningfully in the process. I had to look for an exchange traded fund (ETF) that exactly mirrors the Shanghai Composite.
Several funds have a China ETF traded on U.S. exchanges, however, none of them was an exact replication of a Chinese stock market index at that time. I did not want my money to be at the mercy of some fund’s arbitrary investment strategy. No, I needed it to move precisely like the underlying index. If I pulled up a chart of the Shanghai Composite and see it going up by 1%, my position must have also gone up by 1%. I wanted every sneeze and every yawn mirrored!
During my research, there was nothing for the Shanghai Composite, but I stumbled across a new ETF that offered direct exposure to the CSI 300, a stock market index of the top 300 stocks traded in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges: Xtrackers Harvest CSI 300 China A-Shares ETF with ticker symbol ASHR. Fair enough.
When ASHR was listed in November 2013, it was nothing short of revolutionary as it holds positions directly in Chinese A-shares. A-shares are those of local Chinese companies traded in Renminbi. They are accessible primarily to locals. Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) who have been granted special permission by the Chinese government can also participate in this market. Xtrackers became one of the special permission holders. Sure enough, every move in the underlying index was closely represented in the ETF.
Confidence in Knowing Exactly When to Buy
Since the market reacted on the triggering level, I made the first purchase of 500 shares on December 9, 2013 at $25.79 for a total of $12,894.80 (including commission):
The index did not move much for another half a year. In fact, I was down roughly 15% with the ETF most of the time, but then it happened: The index was hitting my triggering level and it stopped moving down further. It’s as if prices were hitting an invisible floor that no one else could see.
On June 10, 2014, I did another purchase of 100 shares at $22.31, then another 100 shares at $22.47, another 200 shares at $23.62. I continued to buy more and more throughout the year. Prices were hovering nicely above the triggering level.
When the market did take off, I quickly bought another big chunk. By the time I was done buying, I had accumulated 2,000 shares at a value of $55,015.95 (including commission), enough to keep me comfortable. It was time to sit back and let the market do its work.
Sitting On Your Hands Makes All the Money
The uptrend gained steam toward the end of 2014. The stock market index didn’t just rise gradually, but literally shot upwards for the next months.
I’ll share a big secret of the ultra-rich with you that is very controversial for someone in the workforce: Never work hard for your money. Make your money work hard for you. There’s a reason why the richest people in the world are also founders of their own companies. They’re somewhat forced to not sell their shares.
All your current savings may have been built up through hard work, but real fortunes are not made by working hard but made by doing nothing. That’s right. You sit on your hands and watch your wealth accumulate because your money is working for you now. Let it do its work and do not dare to interrupt it.
In June 2015, the total value of my 2,000 ASHR shares stood at $110,340.00:
I did a few things wrong, but I also clearly did a few things right! Other traders out there help you to cope with losing. To me, this is a red flag. They resemble a self-help group. I help you to cope with winning!
With this coup, I had proven my strategy’s worth. Your financial freedom is inevitable. All you have to do is apply my strategies to find new opportunities of similar magnitude.
What you have to know in order to understand trends is this: The biggest influence on the price of a stock is the price of a stock. Such feedback loops make trends happen, and that’s where we will make our money.
Your Entry Price Decides Everything
Sun Tzu’s classic The Art of War isn’t necessarily recommended reading, but there is a particular quote that resonates:
“Every battle is won or lost before it’s ever fought.”
Sun Tzu was referring to the preparation, positioning, and planning that make the difference in the success of a war. That, and knowing when to refuse to fight. A well-planned trend following system, mapped out to the smallest detail, is a guarantor of trading success.
Success or failure is pre-determined even before you have entered a trade. Does it make sense to you? Your entry price determines whether you’ll be able to exit at a better price in future. That’s why the community here focuses so much on the trade’s entry. If you got the entry right, the trends that ensue will be smooth-sailing.
Complete Transformation of Your Trading
Trend following is a wonderful business. There is no inventory to store in warehouses, nothing to ship, no customers to deal with, no marketing activities to plan. You don’t have to incorporate a startup and hustle your way through product-market-fit. You don’t have to fly around the world attending exhibitions in hope of securing new business.
Unlike real estate, trend followers don’t have to bother with reparations or tenants who can’t pay rent. There is no staff to recruit, and no litigations to deal with.
All you really need to start trading is a good amount of starting capital, a good chair, broadband internet connection, and a proper screen.
Come and join the chat during regular trading hours! I teach you how you can enter trades with the lowest risk and with the highest reward potential. All rules and tactics I share are well-structured, easy to understand and easy to follow. You’ll only buy strong markets that are moving higher, and you’ll sell short weak markets that are moving lower.
The strength of this trend following system is that you can apply it on any market that you are familiar with. You’re not restricted to trade in a certain way.
It tackles the root cause of market movements, not some arbitrary chart pattern. Tactics come and go, but this system has no expiration date. Simply request an invite to my Discord group to get started.